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Special flowers

12/10/2014

I went off on liars the other day and got a bunch (one) of highly visible pundits (internet nobody) into a mood of serious self reflection (incoherent and silly rage-spiral). Since everyone is in such a good mood, and willing to examine the issue from all sides (pissed off and completely inflexible in their opinions), I've decided to discuss the topic further (double down on my call). A bunch of insane shrieking lunatics has decided that the best way to put men in a box is to indict all men, from birth, as rapists. No one, really, believes these idiots, so in an attempt to get people to take this crazy notion seriously, they lie. Bald-facedly. Knowingly. They lie because these lies, "support the narrative". "Narrative", in this sense means exactly what narrative has always meant, a story. A "narrative" can be true or fictitious, but in order for a "narrative" to be true, it must actually be not false. There is no way to determine this, however, because in order for a "narrative" to be proven true it's necessary to ask some questions, and it is forbidden to ask questions about rape. Since I am not allowed to question the veracity of certain people's claims, even if those claims are provably false and not provably true, I'll stick to broad questions about reported statistics. The numbers are important here. Why do I think the numbers are important? Because, there is already far too much rape and sexual assault committed in this country. The penalties for it are, and should be, severe. Because rape is a horrible thing. Every civilized culture on the planet abhors rape. Every man detests the rapist, he is an anathema to society. If rape is permitted to go on unprosecuted, barbarism has won out. Rape is an evil, it's as simple as that. So if this currently fashionable narrative is true, then we are living in a barbarous, uncivilized, evil time and almost every third man I know is a rapist and that, I'm glad to say, is just not so. The narrative that these power hungry, anti-male zealots are advancing these days is that one out of five college women will be raped during their time on campus. Here's the original datasheet. I'm not going to pick apart the methodology. I won't have to, the result will speak for itself. Here's the CDC weighing in, so I guess sexual assault is a disease? And here's this asshole repeating it, and we know he's never uttered a false word in his life. But... according to the DOJ, in 2013 there were only 25.2 forcible rapes reported per 100,000 people in the US, and there are 2 million more women enrolled in college then there are men. Given those numbers, does the one-in-five women sexually assaulted while in college story pass the smell test? In 2012, there were 11,723,732 women enrolled in college. There were 85,141 reported rapes in the US. If all of those reported rapes happened on campus, there would still be roughly only three-quarters of a percent (or .73%) of college women raped. That would mean that over 99% of rapes went unreported. Let's look at it another way. If 20% of the 11,723,732 women enrolled in college in 2012 were raped, that would be 2,344,746.40 rapes. If all of the rapes reported in the US in 2012 happened on campus to these women, that would mean that on US college campuses there were 2,259,605.4 unreported rapes. In 2012 there were 8,919,087 men enrolled in US colleges. If every rape was committed by one man, a little over one-quarter of male students (or 26.29% are rapists) would have committed rape, almost every single one of those men would have gotten clean away (25.33% of all male students get away). Let's say, for argument's sake, that the rapists who get away are divided equally by year, that would give us 564901.35 rapists per year. Pardon me, but I think if a half-million or so uncaught rapists were entering the workforce every year, someone would notice. Now, let's use some numbers reported by the schools. According to this website in 2012 there were 4135 sex offenses reported on campuses by colleges required to report and 2505 reported in campus housing. I don't know if these should be combined or not, but I'll combine the numbers just in case. Over four years, 2009 to 2012 there were a total of 22589 sex offenses, forcible and non-forcible reported to the Department of Ed. That's an average of 5647.25 sex offenses reported per-year. That 5647.25 is equal to 6.56% of the average total reported rape in the country for those years! You may see the one in five beginning to fill out here, right? No. The average number of women enrolled in college per year over the same four years is 11,830,217, so it comes to about one half of one percent. There was an average of 86112.5 reported rapes per year reported to the DOJ for the entire country for those four years. If all of those rapes happened on-campus to our pool of enrolled women there would still be less than one percentage of college women who were rape victims (or .73%). For that One in five figure to be correct there would have had to be at least an additional 591510.85 rapes unreported PER-YEAR. Even if we add the average number of rapes reported in the entire country from 2009 to 2012 to the yearly average of the total number of sex offenses reported by the Department of Education between 2009 and 2012 we still don't reach 1% of the average number of women enrolled in college over the same four year period. Twenty percent of 11,830,217 is 2,274,283.65 that's two and a half million sexual assaults over four years. Given the average number of men enrolled in college over those same four years, 8939975.25, then, again if every assault was committed by a single man, 25.44% of male students sexually assaulted someone. Here's where we go into the wild. Over the same four years, 2009 to 2012, local and state police reported a total of 27 sexual assaults that occurred on campus or in campus housing to the Department of Education. What about the other 22562 sexual assaults that occurred on campus over those four years? Did the police not report them? Did they not get reported to the police? The police only reported 0.12% of the total reported sexual assaults that occurred on college campuses throughout the US to the Department of Education. If we average it out over four years, and use the one in five number, it's worse. Much worse. The police reported 0.0003% of sexual assaults on campus. Even worse than that, according to the database there were no arrests for sexual assault made on campus (and I selected all in the US and Outlying Areas). Now do you see why I think this one-in-five is bullshit? There is no way. NONE. If every year almost 600,000 women were sexually assaulted on college campuses in the US, women wouldn't be going to college. There certainly wouldn't be a market for co-ed colleges, much less co-ed dorms, or in some cases, rooms. Fraternities would have disappeared sometime in the 50's. There would be no party scene or "college experience", because women wouldn't go. Let's face it, we'd be back to Victorian Era levels of prudery in this country pretty damn quick, and some women would be bitching about that too. You know, 71% of human resource managers in the US are women. If the one-in-five number is true, then 28.17% of HR managers were sexually assaulted in college. Wouldn't there be a bias against hiring men on account 26% of college educated men are rapists? Trivializing rape by lying about how much is happening unreported is wrong and dangerous. This particular lie is pernicious and evil, and will end badly. It's already showing its frayed seams. The only way to perpetuate this fiction is to make sure that no one is allowed to ever ask any questions about any rape accusation, no matter how impossible, cooked up, or crazy the circumstances seem. This is going to make it extraordinarily hard for real rape victims to be believed and to get the justice they deserve. There are very few people in the world who can hear terrible stories about people, groups and institutions that they know and have experience with and accept those stories uncritically. It also seems, to me, that if this lie is allowed to continue unchallenged, that it's just possible that eventually young men will feel they can act with impunity, since there's less than one percent's chance that the rape will be reported. Or, in other words, look what she was studying, she was asking for it. I may be unfortunately proven right, in 2013 there was a one-third increase in reported sexual assault on campus.
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